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John B. Heywood. Bonde Åkerlind, Ingrid Gudrun Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division a-cc--- 2013-09-24T19:43:46Z 2013-09-24T19:43:46Z 2013 2013 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81114 858279313 Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-122). As the number of vehicles in China has relentlessly grown in the past decade, the energy demand, fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with these vehicles have kept pace. This thesis presents a model to project future energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions for the Chinese light duty vehicle fleet. Results indicate that China can offset rapid vehicle energy demand growth with reductions in fuel consumption and new vehicle technologies. These reference scenario results indicate that future light duty vehicle energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions will peak below 400 mtoe and 1700 mmt carbon dioxide, respectively. In addition, a scenario based sensitivity analysis reveals that vehicle stock, vehicle fuel consumption and vehicle fleet electrification are the most significant drivers in determining future light duty vehicle energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions. The Chinese government is concerned with these trends. In a complementary analysis, I investigate existing government policy strategies that may affect future automotive energy demand. I find that policy strategies are fairly well aligned with the significant drivers to reduce automotive energy demand. However, I also find that national government policies are often not implemented as intended at the local government level. Finally, I analyze current domestic and joint venture brand vehicle technology, where I find that domestic car technology lags joint venture car technology. by Ingrid Gudrun Bonde Åkerlind. S.M. in Technology and Policy 147 p. eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 Engineering Systems Division. Driving change : evaluating strategies to control automotive energy demand growth in China Evaluating strategies to control automotive energy demand growth in China Thesis application/pdf false Publication unknown unknown <Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="9fddd708-419a-48ff-a184-aaaa38242728"> <Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type> <Language>eng</Language> <Title>Driving change : evaluating strategies to control automotive energy demand growth in China</Title> <Subtitle>Evaluating strategies to control automotive energy demand growth in China</Subtitle> <PublishedIn> <Publication> </Publication> </PublishedIn> <PublicationDate>2013</PublicationDate> <Authors> <Author> <DisplayName>Bonde Åkerlind, Ingrid Gudrun</DisplayName> <Affiliation> <OrgUnit> </OrgUnit> </Affiliation> </Author> </Authors> <Editors> </Editors> <Publishers> <Publisher> <DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <OrgUnit /> </Publisher> </Publishers> <License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License> <Keyword>Engineering Systems Division.</Keyword> <Abstract>As the number of vehicles in China has relentlessly grown in the past decade, the energy demand, fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with these vehicles have kept pace. This thesis presents a model to project future energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions for the Chinese light duty vehicle fleet. Results indicate that China can offset rapid vehicle energy demand growth with reductions in fuel consumption and new vehicle technologies. These reference scenario results indicate that future light duty vehicle energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions will peak below 400 mtoe and 1700 mmt carbon dioxide, respectively. In addition, a scenario based sensitivity analysis reveals that vehicle stock, vehicle fuel consumption and vehicle fleet electrification are the most significant drivers in determining future light duty vehicle energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions. The Chinese government is concerned with these trends. In a complementary analysis, I investigate existing government policy strategies that may affect future automotive energy demand. I find that policy strategies are fairly well aligned with the significant drivers to reduce automotive energy demand. However, I also find that national government policies are often not implemented as intended at the local government level. Finally, I analyze current domestic and joint venture brand vehicle technology, where I find that domestic car technology lags joint venture car technology.</Abstract> <Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right" > </Access> </Publication>