2026-09-19T22:14:12Zhttps://dspace.mit.edu/server/oai/requestoai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/899652022-01-13T07:55:22Zcom_1721.1_7582com_1721.1_7581col_1721.1_131024
Joel P. Clark.
Dunn, William Colby
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering
2014-09-19T21:31:34Z
2014-09-19T21:31:34Z
2013
2014
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/89965
890129375
Thesis: S.B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, June 2014.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. "May 2013."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 43-45).
Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.
by William Colby Dunn.
S.B.
50 pages
eng
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
Materials Science and Engineering.
A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives
Thesis
application/pdf
false
Publication
unknown
unknown
<Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="1e59e263-d061-4df2-8dfe-295688bf05d1">
<Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type>
<Language>eng</Language>
<Title>A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives</Title>
<PublishedIn>
<Publication>
</Publication>
</PublishedIn>
<PublicationDate>2014</PublicationDate>
<Authors>
<Author>
<DisplayName>Dunn, William Colby</DisplayName>
<Affiliation>
<OrgUnit>
</OrgUnit>
</Affiliation>
</Author>
</Authors>
<Editors>
</Editors>
<Publishers>
<Publisher>
<DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName>
<OrgUnit />
</Publisher>
</Publishers>
<License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License>
<Keyword>Materials Science and Engineering.</Keyword>
<Abstract>Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.</Abstract>
<Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right"
>
</Access>
</Publication>