2026-09-21T08:19:54Zhttps://dspace.mit.edu/server/oai/requestoai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/926392026-06-06T01:03:21Zcom_1721.1_7582com_1721.1_7581com_1721.1_101402col_1721.1_131023col_1721.1_101610
Shardul Phadnis.
Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)
Shin, Jaesung
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
2015-01-05T20:00:53Z
2015-01-05T20:00:53Z
2014
2014
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/92639
898124674
Thesis: M. Eng. in Logistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 47-48).
Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and production decisions depend on accurately predicting the life cycle effects on product demand. For products with stable market shares, forecasting demand over the life cycle benefits from the high degree of correlation with prior sales of similar products. But for volatile-share markets, rapid innovation continually alters the shape of available features and performance, leading to products with demand patterns that differ greatly from prior generations and forecasting techniques that rely more on judgment and naive expectations. In an effort to understand opportunities and limitations of quantitative forecasting in a specific volatile-market context, we hypothesized certain characteristics about the shape and volatility of the demand trend in volatile-market product, and tested them using sample stable and volatile market data from a partner firm. We found significant differences in quantifiable characteristics such as skew and variance over the life cycle, presenting an opportunity for supply chain stakeholders to incorporate life cycle effects into forecasting models.
by Alexander Baldwin and Jaesung Shin.
M.Eng. in Logistics
49 pages
eng
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
Engineering Systems Division.
New product forecasting in volatile markets
Thesis
application/pdf
Publication
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unknown
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<Abstract>Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and production decisions depend on accurately predicting the life cycle effects on product demand. For products with stable market shares, forecasting demand over the life cycle benefits from the high degree of correlation with prior sales of similar products. But for volatile-share markets, rapid innovation continually alters the shape of available features and performance, leading to products with demand patterns that differ greatly from prior generations and forecasting techniques that rely more on judgment and naive expectations. In an effort to understand opportunities and limitations of quantitative forecasting in a specific volatile-market context, we hypothesized certain characteristics about the shape and volatility of the demand trend in volatile-market product, and tested them using sample stable and volatile market data from a partner firm. We found significant differences in quantifiable characteristics such as skew and variance over the life cycle, presenting an opportunity for supply chain stakeholders to incorporate life cycle effects into forecasting models.</Abstract>
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