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John E. Parsons. Ramberg, David J. (David John) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division 2015-10-30T18:33:36Z 2015-10-30T18:33:36Z 2015 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99536 924307411 Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015. This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (pages 185-198). The dissertation examines conditions under which gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology penetration shifts the crude oil-natural gas price ratio. Empirical research finds long-run relationships between crude oil and natural gas prices. Some studies include time trends that steadily evolve the pricing relationship, while others show a long-run relationship that occasionally shifts significantly. A common hypothesis is that technologies that increase substitutability or complementarity between fuels are the source of the price linkage. However, empirically measuring the effects of a gradually-penetrating technology across narrow time frames is not possible due to intervening economic shocks. This thesis examines the effects of an energy conversion technology penetration on the crude oil-natural gas price ratio through its influence on sectoral energy use in the U.S. GTL must be less expensive and more efficient, and natural gas prices must be lower, than currently forecast for an effect to be measured. In the absence of a technology that explicitly allows for substitution between natural gas and petroleum-based fuels, different rates of demand growth result in a steadily-rising oil-gas price ratio. If a viable GTL technology successfully competes against petroleum-derived refined fuels, it dampens crude oil price increases and brings the oil-gas price ratio below the levels found in cases without a viable GTL technology. by David John Ramberg. Ph.D. 198 pages eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 Engineering Systems Division. General equilibrium impacts of new energy technologies on sectoral energy usage Thesis application/pdf false Publication unknown unknown <Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="0075a016-6615-4476-ad4e-b4eeb567e50c"> <Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type> <Language>eng</Language> <Title>General equilibrium impacts of new energy technologies on sectoral energy usage</Title> <PublishedIn> <Publication> </Publication> </PublishedIn> <PublicationDate>2015</PublicationDate> <Authors> <Author> <DisplayName>Ramberg, David J. (David John)</DisplayName> <Affiliation> <OrgUnit> </OrgUnit> </Affiliation> </Author> </Authors> <Editors> </Editors> <Publishers> <Publisher> <DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <OrgUnit /> </Publisher> </Publishers> <License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License> <Keyword>Engineering Systems Division.</Keyword> <Abstract>The dissertation examines conditions under which gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology penetration shifts the crude oil-natural gas price ratio. Empirical research finds long-run relationships between crude oil and natural gas prices. Some studies include time trends that steadily evolve the pricing relationship, while others show a long-run relationship that occasionally shifts significantly. A common hypothesis is that technologies that increase substitutability or complementarity between fuels are the source of the price linkage. However, empirically measuring the effects of a gradually-penetrating technology across narrow time frames is not possible due to intervening economic shocks. This thesis examines the effects of an energy conversion technology penetration on the crude oil-natural gas price ratio through its influence on sectoral energy use in the U.S. GTL must be less expensive and more efficient, and natural gas prices must be lower, than currently forecast for an effect to be measured. In the absence of a technology that explicitly allows for substitution between natural gas and petroleum-based fuels, different rates of demand growth result in a steadily-rising oil-gas price ratio. If a viable GTL technology successfully competes against petroleum-derived refined fuels, it dampens crude oil price increases and brings the oil-gas price ratio below the levels found in cases without a viable GTL technology.</Abstract> <Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right" > </Access> </Publication>