Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison
Author(s)
Gillingham, K.; Nordhaus, W.; Anthoff, D.; Blanford, G.; Bosetti, V.; Christensen, P.; McJeon, H.; Reilly, J.; Sztorc, P.; ... Show more Show less
DownloadMITJPSPGC_Rpt290.pdf (2.646Mb)
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.
Date issued
2015-12Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report 290
Series/Report no.
MIT Joint Program Report Series;290