| dc.description.abstract | This thesis examines the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for long-haul trucking, using system dynamics modeling, financial impact modeling, and environmental impact modeling, and looks across a broad range of possible future scenarios that could impact the viability of BEV use in long-haul trucks. System dynamics modeling, with causal loops, is used to identify key factors influencing adoption rates. Results show that battery capabilities, the total cost of ownership, and feedback loops are critical considerations in increasing BEV adoption. Environmental impact analysis demonstrates that transitioning to BEVs can lead to significant and immediate reductions in emissions. If the transition occurs now, with current development, there would be an immediate 37% reduction in GHG emissions and an 85% reduction in all direct emissions from air pollutants, not including SO2 emissions. If the medium or aggressive development scenarios outlined in this paper occur, there would be a 60% reduction in GHG emissions and a 90% reduction in all direct emissions from air pollutants, not including SO2 emissions.
These reductions could be vital in addressing emissions in this sector and helping curb climate change. Payload impact analysis demonstrates that the additional battery weight in a BEV long-haul truck would not be an issue for 93% of long-haul trucks. Financial impact analysis indicates that if charging capabilities increase to 500kW or above, BEVs are a better investment across all economic scenarios over the years of ownership, driven by lower operating costs. If no further development in charging capability occurs, the economic benefits of transitioning are subject to market conditions. Regardless of charging station capability development, if the price of diesel fuel remains above US$3.65 per gallon, BEVs are the preferred investment. Additionally, comprehensive net present value (NPV) analysis is used to demonstrate whether BEV long-haul trucks are a good investment for both the trucking industry and partner companies depending on various economic and development speed scenarios.
In current economic scenarios with no further development, BEV long-haul trucks are a good investment for both the trucking industry and partner companies, with net financial gains of $59K with a payback period of 5 years or $77K with a payback period of 4 years respectively. It is also significant to note that these calculations use transportation end consumer electricity prices and do not include subsidies or incentives. By sourcing energy differently and utilizing renewable energy sources, companies can substantially decrease operating costs, making the transition to BEVs even more financially viable than presented. With subsidies and incentives in place, the case for BEV long-haul trucks is further strengthened. The thesis also includes a specific analysis of the Tesla semi-truck with a fuel economy of 19.8MPGe. This Tesla semi-truck analysis revealed that regardless of charger development, the Tesla semi-truck would be a better investment than an ICE long-haul truck for both the trucking industry and partner companies.
Additionally, the analysis in this thesis suggests that there are significant benefits to increasing charging capabilities to 500kW, which would reduce charging downtime from 4 hours to approximately 2 to 2.5 hours per full charge. Even with the significant downtime, such an increase in charging capabilities would make the BEV long-haul truck the better investment in all feasible projected economic scenarios. The thesis concludes that the case for BEV long-haul trucks is clear, and there is significant potential to accelerate and capitalize on the transition to BEVs in the long-haul trucking industry. | |
