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Mark-recapture statistics and demographic analysis

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dc.contributor.advisor Hal Caswell. en_US Fujiwara, Masami, 1970- en_US
dc.contributor.other Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. en_US 2005-09-27T20:20:46Z 2005-09-27T20:20:46Z 2002 en_US 2002 en_US
dc.description Thesis (Ph.D.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Biology, and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2002. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-138). en_US
dc.description.abstract Mark-recapture analysis of populations is becoming an important tool in population biology. Mark-recapture methods can be used to estimate transition probabilities among life-stages from capture histories of marked individuals for which stages can be determined at each sampling occasion. This method is called a multi-stage mark-recapture (MSMR) method. In this thesis, I describe advances I made in the MSMR method and present analyses that apply this method to actual data. The advances I made in the MSMR method are motivated by a need to provide a link between mark-recapture data and demographic models such as matrix population models and integrodifference models. I resolve some issues that are commonly encountered during sampling, such as the fact that the sex or life-stage of some individuals is unknown during some sampling occasions and that individuals become unobservable during some life-stages. I introduce a stage-structure that permits simple conversion of estimated transition probabilities into a matrix population model. I describe an algorithm to simplify programming for parameter estimation. I also introduce a method to estimate the distribution of dispersal displacements (a dispersal kernel) from mark-recapture data. I apply some of the methods described above to data of the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). The right whales are considered one of the most endangered mammals. The current population size is about 300 in the northwestern Atlantic, and the number is declining. I applied the multi-stage mark-recapture statistics to the 17-year in- dividual sighting history data. en_US
dc.description.abstract (cont.) Using the estimated transition probabilities, I constructed a population projection matrix, which was used for further demographic analyses. I found that the population was slowly increasing in 1980, but it started to decline slowly around 1992. I show that (1) this change was caused by increased mortality of females that have just given birth, (2) protecting two females a year from the deaths is enough to prevent the declining trend, and (3) demographic stochasticity is a more important factor influencing their long-term viability than environmental stochasticity. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Masami Fujiwara. en_US
dc.format.extent 138 leaves en_US
dc.format.extent 8669980 bytes
dc.format.extent 8669739 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.subject /Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering. en_US
dc.subject Biology. en_US
dc.subject Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. en_US
dc.title Mark-recapture statistics and demographic analysis en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US Ph.D. en_US
dc.contributor.department Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Biology. en_US
dc.contributor.department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 50573857 en_US

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