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Uncertainty analysis of the cost of climate policies

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dc.contributor.advisor Henry Jacoby. en_US Cossa, Paul F. (Paul Francois), 1979- en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US 2006-03-24T18:17:08Z 2006-03-24T18:17:08Z 2004 en_US 2004 en_US
dc.description Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-85). en_US
dc.description.abstract Every climate change policy issue is inherently limited by two questions: what are exactly the consequences of climate change for our lives? How much will it cost to deal with them? Almost twelve years after the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change met in Kyoto in 1992, acknowledging the fact that "change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind" (United Nations, 1992), no global effort is really visible yet. The reason lies in the difficulty scientists and economists have to answer those two questions. This thesis will try to understand how uncertainty on the consequences of climate change drives the cost of policy decisions. It will especially try to find out what are the main sources of uncertainty in policy costs and where should we therefore put our research and policy efforts. In the first part of this thesis, we will perform a sensitivity analysis on the economic parameters relevant to the analysis, in order to identify the ones that most influence the cost of climate change policies. We will then develop and run a specific method to elicit experts' opinions on the uncertainty on each on these parameters. This step will allow us to conduct our uncertainty analysis under different policy assumptions and to understand better the implications of uncertainty on climate change policies. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Paul F. Cossa. en_US
dc.format.extent 85 leaves en_US
dc.format.extent 2992911 bytes
dc.format.extent 2992718 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.subject Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.title Uncertainty analysis of the cost of climate policies en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US S.M. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 55636321 en_US

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