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Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-11)
The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate ...
MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-07)
The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...
Sensitivity of Climate to Diapycnal Diffusivity: Part I. Equilibrium State; Part II. Global Warming Scenario
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004-05)
Part I: The diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is one of the least known parameters in current climate models. Measurements of this diffusivity are sparse and insufficient for compiling a global map. Inferences from inverse ...
Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-04)
We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change ...
Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-09)
We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century ...
Evaluating the Use of Ocean Models of Different Complexity in Climate Change Studies
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-11)
The study of the uncertainties in future climate projections requires large ensembles of simulations with different values of model characteristics that define its response to external forcing. These characteristic include ...
Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006-03)
Studying the uncertainty in computationally expensive models has required the development of specialized methods, including alternative sampling techniques and response surface approaches. However, existing techniques for ...
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-01)
The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to ...
Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007-05)
The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3D ocean subcomponent. Parameters ...
A Three-Dimensional Ocean-Seaice-Carbon Cycle Model and its Coupling to a Two-Dimensional Atmospheric Model: Uses in Climate Change Studies
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-05)
We describe the coupling of a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, with explicit thermodynamic seaice and ocean carbon cycle representations, to a two-dimensional atmospheric/land model. This coupled system has been ...