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dc.contributorReilly, John M.en_US
dc.contributorPrinn, Ronald G.en_US
dc.contributorHarnisch, Jochen.en_US
dc.contributorFitzmaurice, Jean.en_US
dc.contributorJacoby, Henry D.en_US
dc.contributorKicklighter, David W.en_US
dc.contributorStone, Peter H.en_US
dc.contributorSokolov, Andrei P.en_US
dc.contributorWang, Chien.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2003-10-24T14:56:51Z
dc.date.available2003-10-24T14:56:51Z
dc.date.issued1999-01en_US
dc.identifier.otherno. 45en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a45en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3602
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (p. 13-14).en_US
dc.descriptionAbstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)en_US
dc.description.abstractThe Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement aimed at limiting emissions of several greenhouse gases (GHGs; specifically: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, and SF6), and allows credit for approved sinks for CO2. It does not include consideration of several other trace atmospheric constituents that have important indirect effects on the radiative budget of the atmosphere. Here we show that inclusion of other GHGs and CO2 sinks greatly reduces the cost of achieving CO2 emissions reductions specified under the agreement. The Kyoto Protocol extrapolated to 2100 reduces predicted warming by only about 17%. The errors caused by simulating other GHGs with scaled amounts of CO2 on atmospheric composition, climate, and ecosystems are small. Larger errors come from failure to account for interactive and climatic effects of gases that affect atmospheric composition but are not included in the protocol (CO, NOx, and SOx). Over the period to 2100, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) indices based on a 100-year time horizon as specified in the protocol appear to be an adequate representation of trace gas climatic effects. The principal reason for the success of this simplified GWP approach in our calculations is that the mix of gas emissions resulting from a carbon-only rather than a multi-gas control strategy does not change by a large amount.en_US
dc.format.extent14 p.en_US
dc.format.extent80212 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Changeen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesReport no. 45en_US
dc.subject.lccQC981.8.C5 M58 no.45en_US
dc.titleMulti-gas assessment of the Kyoto protocolen_US


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