Dependence, independence, and interdependence in world politics

Abstract

We implement techniques of graph theory to international trade in order to empirically inspect the international system of trade. Examining macro and submacro levels of the international system of trade from 1962-2003, we find the presence of a Scale-Free Network with a Multiscalar Hierarchy. Such structures are resilient to bottom-up economic collapse, but are susceptible to top-down and horizontal economic failures. Our findings are based upon an especially novel approach for examining submacro systems, applying latent community identification analysis to identify trading communities that are not necessarily formalized or institutionalized as trading blocs. Following this analysis, we examine the role of international institutions in the international trade network, specifically considering macro level institutions for stability solutions and examining the effects of joining a trade bloc. We find evidence that supports the intergovernmentalist framework, whereby certain types of trade blocs seem to succeed while others fail, leading to different results in integration and unification.