Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone
Author(s)Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey.; Felzer, Benjamin Seth.; Wang, Xiaodong.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Chien.; ... Show more Show less
Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide, and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country.
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Report no. 149
Report no. 149