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Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025

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Show simple item record Paltsev, Sergey Reilly, John M. 2007-08-15T19:53:58Z 2007-08-15T19:53:58Z 2007-06
dc.description Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website ( en
dc.description.abstract We describe several scenarios for economic development and energy use in East Asia based on the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Historic indicators for Asian economic growth, energy use, and energy intensity are discussed. In the Baseline scenario, energy use in East Asia is projected to increase from around 120 EJ in 2005 to around 220 EJ in 2025. Alternative scenarios were developed to consider: (1) How fast might energy demand grow in East Asia and how does it depend on key uncertainties? (2) Do rising prices for energy affect growth in the region? (3) Would growth in East Asia have a substantial effect on world energy markets? (4) Would development of regional gas markets have substantial effects on energy use in the region and on gas markets in other regions? Briefly, we find that with more rapid economic growth, demand in East Asia could reach 430 EJ by 2025, almost twice the level in the Baseline; rising energy prices place a drag on growth of countries in the region of 0.2 to 0.6% per year; world crude oil markets could be substantially affected by demand growth in the region, with the price effect being as much as $25 per barrel in 2025; and development of regional gas markets could expand gas use in East Asia while leading to higher gas prices in Europe. en
dc.description.sponsorship This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors. en
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Report no. 152 en
dc.title Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025 en
dc.type Technical Report en
dc.identifier.citation Report no. 152 en

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