Regional seismic risk of railway system including derailment consequences

Abstract

To evaluate the seismic risk of railway networks, a derailment consequence model and a regional approach are developed The consequence model estimates the casualty and fatality rates for passengers as a function of train speed and includes two sub-models. The first sub-model, which is for the case when the train remains in its own track after derailment, was developed using historical accident data. The casualty and fatality rates are estimated using a linear logistic model. The other sub-model, for the case of head-on collision and train fall, was developed using numerical simulation results by the U.S.DOT. The regional approach estimates earthquake risk for the entire network In the approach, first, the probabilities of possible derailment scenarios including head-on collision cases are calculated To calculate the probabilities of derailment due to seismic vibration and facility damage, the derailment probability model is applied After one scenario is selected by Monte Carlo method based on calculated probabilities, the consequences are calculated for the scenario applying the consequence model developed previously. Through an application to the Tohoku Shinkansen line, we illustrate how the system is in many ways an improvement over the current JR East system.