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Early growth technology analysis : case studies in solar energy and geothermal energy

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dc.contributor.advisor Stuart Madnick. en_US
dc.contributor.author Kaya Firat, Ayse en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2011-04-04T17:43:39Z
dc.date.available 2011-04-04T17:43:39Z
dc.date.copyright 2010 en_US
dc.date.issued 2010 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62107
dc.description Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2010. en_US
dc.description Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-87). en_US
dc.description.abstract Public and private organizations try to forecast the future of technological developments and allocate funds accordingly. Based on our interviews with experts from MIT's Entrepreneurship Center, Sloan School of Management, and IBM, and review of literature, we found out that this important fund allocation process is dominated by reliance on expert opinions, which has important drawbacks alongside its advantages. In this Thesis, we introduce a data-driven approach, called early growth technology analysis, to technology forecasting that utilizes diverse information sources to analyze the evolution of promising new technologies. Our approach is based on bibliometric analysis, consisting of three key steps: extraction of related keywords from online publication databases, determining the occurrence frequencies of these keywords, and identifying those exhibiting rapid growth. Our proposal goes beyond the theoretical level, and is embodied in software that collects the required inputs from the user through a visual interface, extracts data from web sites on the fly, performs an analysis on the collected data, and displays the results. Compared to earlier software within our group, the new interface offers a much improved user experience in performing the analysis. Although these methods are applicable to any domain of study, this Thesis presents results from case studies on the fields of solar and geothermal energy. We identified emerging technologies in these specific fields to test the viability of our results. We believe that data-driven approaches, such as the one proposed in this Thesis, will increasingly be used by policy makers to complement, verify, and validate expert opinions in mapping practical goals into basic/applied research areas and coming up with technology investment decisions. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Ayse Kaya Firat. en_US
dc.format.extent 185 p. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 en_US
dc.subject Engineering Systems Division. en_US
dc.subject Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.title Early growth technology analysis : case studies in solar energy and geothermal energy en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree S.M.in Technology and Policy en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 707937789 en_US


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