How predictable : patterns of human economic behavior in the wild

Abstract

Shopping is driven by needs (to eat, to socialize, to work), but it is also a driver of where we go. I examine the transaction records of 80 million customers and find that while our economic choices predict mobility patterns overall, at the small scale we transact unpredictably. In particular, we bundle together multiple store visits, and interleave the order in which we frequent those stores. Individual predictability also varies with income level. I end with a description of how merchant composition emerges in US cities, as seen through the lens of credit card swipes.