Risks And returns Of fixed income arbitrage strategies in varying economic environments : a model based on empirical considerations

Abstract

I propose a discrete time model of financial markets in which an arbitrageur has investment opportunities but faces a number of financial constraints. Investment opportunities arise when the price discrepancy between a pair of similar assets becomes large enough. I propose an innovative way to model the effects of market liquidity and the arbitrage industry's reversion force on a stochastic price discrepancy. I use empirical studies and common literature assumptions to build and calibrate the model. I then run a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to test the model's response to the risks and returns of a number of arbitrage strategies in varying economic conditions. The model's results are in line with a number of theories in the existing literature, and specifically confirm the role of the arbitrageur as a liquidity provider in disturbed market environments.