Strategic analysis of technical, commercial, and regulatory influences on the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Abstract

Increasing regulatory pressures are being applied to automotive manufacturers requiring them to reduce the negative impacts that their vehicles have on the environment. In response to these regulations, and evolving consumer preferences, manufacturers are heavily invested in identifying technologies to increase fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative propulsion technologies, such as fuel cells, are of tremendous interest to provide these benefits. However, factors including refueling infrastructure requirements, technology costs, and consumer willingness-to-consider all significantly impact the commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). I develop a system dynamics model to explore the temporal importance of critical factors required to build a market for HFCVs that is sustainable in the long-term. This methodology allows for the following: 1) Infrastructure: Identification of optimal hydrogen infrastructure growth necessary in order to support HFCV adoption and minimize required fueling stations. Additionally, the conditions in which external construction and operational support may give way to organic growth can be determined. 2) HFCV Ownership Costs: A time-dependent characterization of vehicle price and ownership subsidies can be ascertained to facilitate adoption. 3) Familiarity Accumulation: Assessment of the marketing investment necessary to yield desired HFCV adoption while minimizing costs. 4) Regulatory Requirements: Projection of compliance with Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Action Plan requirements, highlighting potential impacts and possible mitigation measures.