Conditions for natural gas to become an effective bridge fuel to a low-carbon future

Abstract

Natural gas has commonly been described as a 'bridge fuel' that could transition U.S. from fossil fuels to a low-carbon energy system by 2050 in order to reach the internationally agreed target of limiting the global mean surface temperature to about 2 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels. This natural gas resource has grown tremendously over the last decade, as its production has been fueled by the use of more advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies. Being a cleaner form of fossil fuel, burning natural gas emits about half as much carbon dioxide as coal and is thought to aid in decarbonizing the nation by displacing coal as a fuel for power generation. However, the increased supply of cheap natural gas could also have an effect of delaying the advancement of renewable resources such as solar and wind. Nonetheless, optimal conditions could be explored on how natural gas can become an effective 'bridge fuel' towards a low carbon energy system. This thesis developed a system dynamics model to analyze these required conditions and found that high natural prices that rise to $26.45/mmBTU in 2050 are necessary to hit the 2°C target. An efficient policy that could drive these high natural gas prices is the carbon tax. Furthermore, another important role that natural gas serves is as a backup power source for intermittent renewable energy resources.