Assessing the impact of historical operational data from complex assets on predictive maintenance models

Abstract

Over the past one hundred years, maintenance concepts have evolved from a simple "fix when broken" approach to advanced prognostic methods used today that leverage large amounts of historical, operational, and primary sensor data to predict when and how failures will occur. For firms that produce complex assets, the ability to predict with accuracy when maintenance overhauls should occur can provide both an operational and economic competitive advantage. This research evaluates the hypothesis that the accuracy of predictive maintenance models for complex assets can be improved with the addition of historical operational data and failure modes can be more clearly identified by examining primary sensor data. This hypothesis is tested through data analysis on predictive maintenance models used by commercial turbofan jet engines. Because some engines have operated for decades, their entire operational records are not in the appropriate digital format and not utilized by current models. This research identifies alternate, available sources of this data. The additional data sources were processed and incorporated into the existing predictive maintenance models. The addition of the operational data sources did not reduce the error in the model used to forecast the useful life of assets for preventative maintenance, which suggests that the current coverage provided by existing data is sufficient. The examination of primary sensor data isolated one component that displayed age-related degradation and maintenance costs.