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Leveraging machine learning to predict playcalling tendencies in the NFL

Author(s)
Goyal, Udgam.
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Other Contributors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.
Advisor
John V. Guttag.
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MIT theses may be protected by copyright. Please reuse MIT thesis content according to the MIT Libraries Permissions Policy, which is available through the URL provided. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
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Abstract
In this thesis, we apply four machine learning models to NFL play-by-play data from 2009-2018 to predict whether a team will run or pass the ball on a given play. We tested our models using league-wide and team-specific data in five different situations on the field. Our best league-wide models achieved a test accuracy of 80% and our best team-specific models achieved a test accuracy of 86%. Relative to the baseline of the run-to-pass ratio, the best league-wide models achieved an increase in accuracy of 25% and the best team-specific models achieved an increase of 27%. Our models showed that the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, and the Cincinnati Bengals have been the most predictable offenses in the NFL over 10 years. We found that a team's in-game run-to-pass ratio and their win and score probabilities are the driving factors for offensive play-calling. Additionally, our results show that teams are more predictable later in games, and that less predictable teams tend to experience greater success offensively.
Description
Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, February, 2020
 
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF of thesis.
 
Includes bibliographical references (pages 57-58).
 
Date issued
2020
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129909
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Keywords
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

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