Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Author(s)Aleta, Alberto; Martín-Corral, David; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Ajelli, Marco; Litvinova, Maria; Chinazzi, Matteo; Dean, Natalie E.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini Jr, Ira M.; Merler, Stefano; Pentland, Alex; Vespignani, Alessandro; Moro, Esteban; Moreno, Yamir; ... Show more Show less
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While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
Nature Human Behaviour
Aleta, A., Martin-Corral, D., y Piontti, A. P., Ajelli, M., Litvinova, M., Chinazzi, M., ... & Moreno, Y. (2020). Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(9), 964-971.
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