The impact of disruptions on the economics of a tokamak power plant

Abstract

Tokamaks are often considered a leading candidate for near-term, cost-effective fusion energy, but are susceptible to sudden loss of confinement events called "disruptions.'' The threat of disruptions has garnered serious attention in research and development for the next generation of burning plasma experiments, such as ITER, but has received no thorough treatment in studies of magnetic fusion energy economics. In this paper, we provide a set of possible post-disruption recovery times based on technological and organization limitations, a list of various ways disruptions can add to the expense of a tokamak power plant (TPP), and a model for the cost of fusion electricity as a function of disruption-related parameters. We show how these tools can be used to more accurately compute the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of a TPP and quantify upper limits on disruption rate for TPPs such as DEMO-like and ARC-like concepts. We utilize these findings to highlight where future research can have a strong impact in neutralizing the ``showstopping'' potential of the disruption problem.