Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing
Name
AGU Advances - 2025 - Sweeney - Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic.pdf
Description
Published version
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5.44 MB
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Author(s)
Sweeney, Aodhan
Fu, Qiang
Solomon, Susan
Po‐Chedley, Stephen
Randel, William J
Steiner, Andrea
Lin, Pu
Birner, Thomas
Davis, Sean
Wang, Peidong
Date Issued
August 2, 2025
Journal
AGU Advances
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Sweeney, A., Fu, Q., Solomon, S., Po-Chedley, S., Randel, W. J., Steiner, A., et al. (2025). Recent warming of the southern Hemisphere subtropical lower stratosphere and Antarctic ozone healing. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001737.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st‐century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer‐Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower‐stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower‐stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001737
