Quantifying the Value of Spacecraft Refueling and Repositioning Using a Technology Maturation-Based Tradespace Approach
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Showalter-nshow-Phd-AeroAstro-2025-thesis.pdf
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Author(s)
Showalter, Nick E.
Advisor(s)
Hastings, Daniel E.
Date Issued
May 2025
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Recent growth in space activities has led to increased interest in space maneuverability services in the form of refueling and repositioning. Despite this interest, limited analysis has been conducted to quantify these services’ value and impact. Currently, the consideration and selection of space servicing options rely heavily on heuristics and subject-matter-expert judgment. To address this gap, this thesis introduces the Technology Progression-Informed Tradespace Analysis (TPITA) method to establish a structured and quantitative approach to valuing client-servicer systems while accounting for the time-dependence of technology performance. Applying the TPITA method, this work determines the value of on-orbit refueling and repositioning for Earth imaging satellite owner-operators. While existing tradespace analysis methods can capture complicated scenarios, they often necessitate compromises between model confidence and computational demand. To increase confidence in analyses and reduce evaluative demands, the TPITA method uses the Advanced Technology Roadmap Architecture (ATRA) to produce a mathematical state-of-technology progression for space refueling and repositioning systems. Building on these progression results, a comparative analysis of imaging satellite designs is conducted for 2304 diverse lifetime scenarios. A combination of Epoch Era Analysis (EEA), Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE), and a novel Benefit Metric are used to capture the relative cost-benefit of using refueling or repositioning throughout lifetime scenarios. This work culminates in the creation of stakeholder Look-up Charts (LuCs), which provide an aggregate community-wide view of the circumstances where on-orbit refueling and repositioning can provide value to client spacecraft. The results of this thesis demonstrate that space maneuverability services offer unique and tailorable advantages to imaging satellite stakeholders if used in the right circumstances. In thrust-demanding scenarios such as very low earth orbit (vLEO) or mass-constrained environments where design tradeoffs must be made between spacecraft propellant and payload masses, including geostationary orbit (GEO), refueling and repositioning offer significant benefit for long-life spacecraft. Conversely, maneuverability servicing benefits are limited in environments where little propellant is required for lifetime maneuvering, where space access is easy and mass efficient, or where small payloads can fulfill stakeholder needs. Last, the insights gained through the TPITA method demonstrate its methodological value and potential for broad application for complex systems engineering efforts seeking to quantify the benefit of a service.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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