Statistical Features of a Time-Averaged Global State Estimate: Strong Regional Variations and Implications for Sea Level and Heat Content Change
Name
phoc-JPO-D-25-0018.1.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
5.82 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
6ab15f9f7fba503ddfcd67ea97eaf2b5
Author(s)
Wunsch, Carl
Date Issued
October 3, 2025
Journal
Journal of Physical Oceanography
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Wunsch, C., 2025: Statistical Features of a Time-Averaged Global State Estimate: Strong Regional Variations and Implications for Sea Level and Heat Content Change. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 55, 1859–1879.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
A three-dimensional global state estimate derived from Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) using diverse error-weighted global data permits the computation of a multidecadal (1992–2017) time-averaged ocean circulation and its variability obeying the numerical requirements of the MITgcm and associated property conservation conditions. The result exhibits a variety of underlying temporal structures in different regions: statistically stationary, nonstationary, long memory, short memory, red noise, blue noise, etc. That variety renders difficult the interpretation and understanding of quantities such as global averages and trends. Specific variables discussed are sea level and heat content both for the full water column and in the abyss alone with an emphasis on the strong spatial variability of the underlying statistical structures—a result with important consequences for observational sampling strategies. Understanding the properties of the ocean circulation, even a simple time average, requires a duality of understanding of both the global scales and all of the multitude of regionally distinct physics. Absent a complete theory for the statistics of very large multivariable time series, a bootstrap is used to produce approximate estimates of global trends in sea level and heat content.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-25-0018.1
