Tropical Cyclone Seeds, Transition Probabilities, and Genesis
Name
clim-JCLI-D-21-0922.1.pdf
Description
Accepted version
Size
976.02 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
a34b98003e4f5c1fbede46f73d1e9ea5
Author(s)
Emanuel, Kerry
Date Issued
May 10, 2022
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Emanuel, K., 2022: Tropical Cyclone Seeds, Transition Probabilities, and Genesis. J. Climate, 35, 3557–3566.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
It has been proposed that tropical cyclogenesis rates can be expressed as the product of the frequency of “seeds” and a transition probability that depends on the large-scale environment. Here it is demonstrated that the partitioning between seed frequency and transition probability depends on the seed definition and that the existence of such a partition does not resolve the long-standing issue of whether tropical cyclone frequency is controlled more by environmental conditions or by the statistics of background weather. It is here argued that tropical cyclone climatology is mostly controlled by regional environment and that the response of global tropical cyclone activity to globally uniform radiative forcing may be more controlled by the regionality of the response than by the mean response.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0922.1
