Architecting a Safe and Scalable Airspace Coordination System for Aircraft and Rocket Launches
Name
maa-smaa3-sm-sdm-2026-thesis.pdf
Size
29.99 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
4e026bc5f927b05a8176e103a24d80fc
Author(s)
Maa, Steven T.
Advisor(s)
Lordos, George
Date Issued
February 2026
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Growing aviation and space activity are escalating National Airspace System (NAS) conflicts between aircraft and launch vehicles. This thesis develops a detailed framework to model future multi-launch impacts on aviation to identify economic policies that preserve airspace value for all users. The model simulates airplane route segments and launches, identifies conflicts between flight paths and Aircraft Hazard Area (AHA)s, implements aircraft diversion algorithms, and estimates airplane diversion distance and hours. The full set of 3161 simulations conducted includes varying daily launch counts, vehicle size, azimuth, and start time and implementing different policy treatments (AHA size and duration reduction factors; parallel launches and launch corridors). Furthermore, the model is modular and enables future refinement of algorithms and modification of air traffic and launch data.
The simulation results showed that launches between 01:00 - 06:00 are most preferable. At these early hours, launches intersect with few en-route flights leading to minimal impacts, regardless of AHA footprint. Furthermore, as a launch’s AHA grows larger, its respective impacts to other airspace users increases nonlinearly - more aircraft must divert with each impacted aircraft forced to re-route longer distances around the no-fly-zone. There is also an increase in impact as a launch’s azimuth increases - higher azimuths will overlap with additional domestic airplane corridors passing through the Atlantic Ocean. With respect to policy treatments, it was most robust to reduce both AHA size and duration, as opposed to focusing heavily on reducing just one of the two factors. Across all nine vehicle mix scenarios, reducing one factor and reducing two factors offered a maximum of 25% and 40% reduction to diversion distance, respectively. The biggest benefits occurred in scenarios with super heavy vehicles, showing that the mitigation resulted in higher returns when applied to larger AHAs.
The recommended economic policy is an airspace usage fee proportional to each launch’s simulated impact on other airspace users. These fees, which may be levied on the launch providers and/or the payload customers, would provide funds for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to expand staffing, undergo projects in maintaining safety from space launches, and pursue improvements to the NAS. The policy also acts as an incentive for launch companies to undertake projects to reduce their AHA footprints. Payload customers may also create mission plans predicated on launch attributes that are less detrimental to aviation. The FAA should also implement policies that incentivize launch providers to focus on reducing both AHA sizes and durations, as a combined effort leads to the greatest average reduction of NAS impacts across all nine projected scenarios and vehicle mixes.
The proliferation of space launches and growth of commercial aviation are global trends. Therefore, this model framework can inform not only U.S. policy but also international efforts to mature aviation-space
integration. Planning for a future where space launches are as prevalent as airplane travel will drive the development of safe, scalable, and sustainable national airspace architectures.
MIT Department
System Design and Management Program.
Terms of Use
In Copyright - Educational Use Permitted
Copyright retained by author(s)
Persistent DSpace Link
