Resolving Long‐Term Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using a Pseudo Proxy Paleotempestology Network Approach
Name
Geophysical Research Letters - 2021 - Wallace - Resolving Long‐Term Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.76 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
e43c9531332bdc1e3503850a8fb808d0
Author(s)
Wallace, Elizabeth J
Dee, Sylvia G
Emanuel, Kerry A
Date Issued
September 28, 2021
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Wallace, E. J., Dee, S. G., & Emanuel, K. A. (2021). Resolving long-term variations in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using a pseudo proxy paleotempestology network approach. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094891.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
>Paleohurricane reconstructions extend the observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) back thousands of years. However, these records are subject to biases–capturing only close‐moving intense storms at varying resolutions. We devise two pseudo proxy networks drawing from the full suite of published paleohurricane studies in the North Atlantic. We run synthetic storms forced with two global climate model simulations of the past millennium through each pseudo network to assess the theoretical skill of paleohurricane proxies at capturing low‐frequency variability in North Atlantic basin‐wide and intrabasin TCs. We find that basin‐wide and paleohurricane compiled TC counts are significantly correlated with one another for the past millennium on annual to multi‐decadal timescales, but compilation skill is limited by proxy temporal resolution. Current paleohurricane proxy networks predominantly capture storms moving in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Increasing the quantity of paleohurricane records from the North American coastline substantially improves reconstruction skill.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094891
