Quantifying the Value of Flexibility: A Tradespace Exploration of On-Orbit Servicing for Space Observatories
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kampert-bryce19-sm-aeroastro-2026-thesis.pdf
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7.04 MB
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Adobe PDF
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dd76cba7b3eee16bdfb5b7e676ad21bb
Author(s)
Kampert, Bryce H.
Advisor(s)
Hastings, Daniel E.
Date Issued
May 2026
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Historically, space systems have been the only engineering systems designed to operate for their entire life cycle without planned servicing or maintenance. Once in orbit, these systems are expected to perform perfectly for years in seclusion, isolated from physical support. This paradigm is shifting as On-Orbit Servicing (OOS) gains industry-wide momentum, allowing assets to adapt to evolving mission parameters and environmental needs. However, mission designers have yet to adapt their trade-off methodologies to account for this changeability. Unlike tangible metrics such as fuel type or reaction wheels, the benefits offered through OOS for space-based observatories have limited quantitative data to justify the increased risk, complexity, and upfront budget allocation required. Building upon a recently developed framework for quantifying system changeability, this research extends the methodology to the specific requirements of space-based observatories operating in complex orbits beyond Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO). By integrating Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) and Epoch-Era Analysis (EEA), this study evaluates thousands of architectural alternatives across 14 orbital regimes, ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to heliocentric asteroid inspection trajectories. The framework utilizes a unified Multi-Attribute Utility (MAU) metric to assess the purchased option value of OOS—incorporating propellant and cryocoolant replenishment as well as modular repairs and upgrades—under stochastic life cycle uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that the value of OOS is an emergent property rather than a universal constant, driven by the intersection of environmental requirements, stakeholder preferences, and external contextual factors. To demonstrate the research’s real-world utility, a case study for a planetary defense mission is conducted, evaluating distinct strategic employment use cases for two critical spacecraft missions: a Near-Earth Object (NEO) detector and a high-resolution NEO inspector. This case study not only uncovers overarching trends for the value of OOS but also highlights how context and operating environments dictate the servicing return on investment. By quantifying exactly when and where servicing becomes an architectural requirement, this work provides a rigorous data-driven model to justify the transition of high-value space assets toward a sustainable, changeable, and resilient future.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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