Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors
Name
Earth s Future - 2023 - Kanyako - Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for.pdf
Description
Published version
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1.51 MB
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Author(s)
Kanyako, Franklyn
Lamontagne, Jonathan
Snyder, Abigail
Morris, Jennifer
Iyer, Gokul
Dolan, Flannery
Ou, Yang
Cox, Kenneth
Date Issued
December 27, 2023
Journal
Earth's Future
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Kanyako, F., Lamontagne, J., Snyder, A., Morris, J., Iyer, G., Dolan, F., et al. (2024). Compounding uncertainties in economic and population growth increase tail risks for relevant outcomes across sectors. Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF003930.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and
regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system
is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding
economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global
Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP
and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices,
and CO2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a
magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly
impact metrics such as CO2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both
global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on
regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and
increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land
availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering
and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance
our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable
insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003930
