A methodology for the assessment of the proliferation resistance of nuclear power systems: topical report

Abstract

A methodology for the assessment of the differ- ential resistance of various nuclear power systems to misuse for the production of nuclear weapons is developed. In the context of this study, a nuclear system comprises a particular fuel cycle and the political/institutional framework in which it oper- ates. The latter may be country-specific. The methodology is based on the principles of Multiattribute Decision Analysis, wherein a set of in- dices or attributes which characterize the prolifera- tion resistance of nuclear systems is defined and evaluated for particular systems. Emphasis has been placed on delineating the logical structure of the problem, rather than on rank ordering the various systems of interest via techniques which aggregate the attribute values in a consistent manner. However, examples of the application of decision analysis in the latter situation have also been given to illustrate the potential of this approach to the proliferation problem.