SERI photovoltaic venture analysis : long term demand estimation

Abstract

This report presents the results of a sectoral demand analysis for photo- voltaic power systems used in the residential sector single family homes], the service, commercial, and institutional sector [schools] and in the central power sector. The results described are the output of a set of three normative modeling activities carried out by the MIT Energy Laboratory, They are based on the assumption that the actors, i.e., the utilities, schools, and homeowners, will switch to photovoltaic power systems when they are cost-effective relative to the competition, that is, centralized power generation using conventional fuels. In each case the assumption is made that the market for photovoltaic power systems will be a new market, not a retrofit market. As a result the annual (total for utilities) sales potential at a given price is estimated for each sector assuming a specific level of new installations in that sector, i.e., new single-family homes, new schools, and additions to utility stocks. As such, the results presented are maxima for a given application. While the methodology presented does not allow for any early acceptors, it does assume that once economic all new homeowners, school-builders, and utilities will buy to a fixed level.