Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China

Abstract

This paper describes an analysis of future air cargo demand in China and its implications for system infrastructure. By extrapolating current trends and evaluating government policies, China is projected to achieve sustained economic development over the next 20 years. Based on this assumption, a forecast for future air cargo demand is made for the period through 2020 using econometric methods. The forecast projects air cargo traffic growth at 11.2% per annum, expanding more than seven fold by 2020 – resulting in an expected 27 million tonnes cargo throughput originating from Chinese airports. A baseline forecast for the cargo throughput at the major hubs and large airports in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan is presented.