An analysis of battery electric vehicle production projections

Abstract

In mid 2008 and early 2009 Deutsche Bank and The Boston Consulting Group each released separate reports detailing projected Battery Electric Vehicle production through 2020. These reports both outlined scenarios in which BEVs gained significant market share (1-2%) by the end of the decade. To analyze the magnitude of the annual growth rates needed to obtain these sales figures, similar case studies were identified and evaluated. The transition from gasoline to diesel power in France between 1970 and 2005 (11% average annual growth) as well as the introduction of Hybrid Gasoline-Electric vehicles to the US (46% average annual growth) were selected as relevant points of comparison. Through a review of all major automotive manufacturers, as well as BEV-focused startups, press releases best case and worst case estimates for total BEV production in 2010 and 2011 were obtained. Using these figures it was determined that in a best case, near term production scenario annual production rates would need to average 35 to 40% annual growth over the next 10 years, and in a worst case near term production scenario would need to average in excess of 45% annual growth to reach production estimates.