Show me the money : a study of real estate development returns

Abstract

This paper introduces three new tools for the analysis and replication of real estate development returns. In particular, this paper discusses advanced sensitivity analysis, real estate development return indexes and synthetic real estate development investments. The advanced sensitivity analysis allows us to produce subjective ex ante return distributions. This analysis will allow developers and investors to "see" the shape of their investments return distribution. The benefits of knowing the shape of the subjective ex ante return distributions is that it may help developers and investors make better decisions and negotiate specific terms with each contributor in the capital structure. The ex post analysis allows us to produce development return indexes useful in the benchmarking of real estate development performance and in the creation of synthetic development investments by way of the new real estate derivatives. The development return indexes are created by transforming MIT's Transaction Based Index (TBI), which tracks stabilized property returns, into development return indexes through the use of a stylized mathematical model.