Final report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1978 to June 30, 1980 of project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market.

Abstract

The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing improved methods and data for analysis of the future course of the world oil market. Any forecast of this market depends on analysis of the likely demand for oil imports by major consuming countries, and the likely supply from exporters who behave as "price-takers" in their oil exploration and production. The resulting net demand for oil from the core members of the oil cartel determines the ability of OPEC to set prices. In the M.I.T. research, study of net demand for cartel oil is accompanied by analysis of the behavior of the price-setters themselves, and exploration of the details of market structure as they influence price behavior and trade patterns.

The work involves a set of studies of oil supply from key producer areas, import demand from consuming nations, integration of supply and demand studies into the overall market analysis, and behavioral studies of the cartel. In the period covered by this report, the focus has been on the further documentation and application of research results from previous years of National Science Foundation support, and the extension of the work in the areas of disaggregated analysis of oil supply, financial influences on supply decisions, and analysis of cartel behavior.

The research contributes to our understanding of the workings of the world oil market and of the likely effects of various national policies. Results include forecasts of likely future price paths, evaluation of various consumer and producer country policies, and study of likely trade patterns in oil and their implications for national security and international finance.