Progress report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1980 to December 31, 1981 of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market

Abstract

The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing forecasting methods that integrate the following considerations which influence investment in oil capacity and the level of oil exports: (1) the geology and microeconomics of exploration and production; and (2) macroeconomic and financial effects of oil investment and export sales. The effort is a continuation of previous NSF-sponsored research on the world oil market. Simplified methods of disaggregated analysis of oil exploration and production are being developed, and a country-level model of oil finance has been formulated and tested. This research has proceeded sufficiently well that it appears possible to merge the two into a unified analysis. This research will contribute to our unde-standin of oil supply from critical regions of the world; it also should lead to better supply analysis for inclusion in the oil system models maintained by U.S. government agencies, university research and non-profit groups, and private industries.