It’s All Rocket Science: On the Equivalence of Development Timelines for Aerospace and Nuclear Technologies

Abstract

Early in the lifecycle of a system development, systems engineers must execute trade studies to allocate resources between different research and development efforts that are developing technologies to be deployed into the system, and they must prepare risk management plans for the selected technologies. We have been developing a statistical model for schedule and cost uncertainty based on a small number of inputs that are quite objective and are already integrated with technology readiness assessment. An algorithm that transforms Technical Maturity (TM) scores from Department of Energy projects into a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) score was created, allowing us to add data from a US Department of Energy to an existing set of data from NASA. We statistically tested whether the two samples (i.e. the DoE and NASA datasets) were randomly drawn from the same population and concluded that the transition times for developing aerospace and nuclear technologies are very similar.