Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
Author(s)Roberts, Christopher J.; Richards, Matthew G.; Ross, Adam M.; Rhodes, Donna H.; Hastings, Daniel E.
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The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential timelines.
scenario planning, epoch-era analysis, multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE), value robustness
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