dc.contributor.author | Valerdi, Ricardo | |
dc.contributor.author | Blackburn, Craig | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-01-27T15:20:03Z | |
dc.date.available | 2014-01-27T15:20:03Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/84553 | |
dc.description.abstract | Biases continue to be an important aspect of human judgment and decision making
because they can lead to unfavorable outcomes. Optimism bias is one type of bias that is often
overlooked because of its association with good health and positive outcomes. However, the
existence of optimism bias in human judgment can be very damaging especially when it distorts
a person’s view of future events.
In order to better understand optimism bias we explore the benefits and downsides of optimism
as well as some empirically-based origins of both optimism and pessimism. This provides a
backdrop for a methodology for quantifying optimism and pessimism using the Brier score
developed for calibrating weather reporters and a discussion about how sports bookies make
well-calibrated decisions. Results are explored from an optimism survey given to a cohort of
eighty systems engineers, which ultimately portray the degree to which optimism bias influences
decision making in large projects. Further exploration of the key differences in optimism across
professions helps distinguish motivational factors and characteristics of well-calibrated
professions. We also present results from a calibration exercise, designed to infer if such
activities can be adopted to assist systems engineering estimation. Finally, we provide
prescriptive advice on how individual decision makers can better manage their optimism and
become more realistic. | en_US |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/ | * |
dc.subject | biases | en_US |
dc.subject | systems engineers | en_US |
dc.subject | optimism | en_US |
dc.subject | decision making | en_US |
dc.title | The Human Element of Decision Making in Systems Engineers: A Focus on Optimism | en_US |
dc.type | Presentation | en_US |
dc.type | Technical Report | en_US |