For your term project, you can choose between a policy-focused project or a model-focused project.

Policy-or Decision-Focused Project

The goal of your project will be to analyze the use of quantitative information in a decision-making process. You should choose a policy area in which quantitative information played a role in decision-making, and conduct a case study of a particular aspect or decision. Consider the following questions (not an exhaustive list):

• How, and how effectively, was quantitative information used in your chosen process? (Think, also, about how you would define "effective" in this situation.)
• Was the information provided credible, salient, and legitimate to various decision-makers?
• What information was not provided in the decision-making process? Would additional information have changed the decision?
• How did the process treat uncertainty?
• What lessons can you draw from this case for the effective use of quantitative information in policy?

Model-Focused Project

The goal of your project will be to use quantitative modeling techniques in a way that is relevant to decision-making. Identify a particular decision or decision-maker in your chosen area, and conduct a simulation or set of simulations which will help inform a particular decision. Consider the following questions (not an exhaustive list):

• Who is the decision-maker who might use the model, and what are their interests?
• Is your model credible, salient and legitimate to that decision-maker? If not, what could make it so?
• What are the limitations of your model? Is uncertainty treated explicitly?
• How would you like your model to be used? How do you expect this would happen in practice?
• What would you recommend for best practices for using or applying your model? Why?
• Potential models or cases you can use for this exercise are numerous. You may use any of the models or elements of cases we have used for in-class exercises, or another model or case you're familiar with (such as a model you're working with for your thesis). Another source for numerous downloadable policy-relevant models is the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Deliverables

There will be two final products for this project. You will present a detailed PowerPoint presentation with your results to the rest of the class at a selected session at the end of the semester. Also, you should submit a 3-5 page policy memo which outlines your results and recommendations to a particular decision-maker of your choice (Due Ses #24).