Readings

Course readings.
SES #	TOPICS	READINGS
Introduction
1	Introduction
2	From simple calculations to complex models	Lubchenco, Jane. "Entering the Century of the Environment: A New Social Contract for Science." Science 279, no. 5350 (1998): 491-497. Oreskes, Naomi, Kristin Shrader‐Frechette, and Kenneth Belitz. "Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences." Science 263, no. 5147 (1994): 641-646.
Frameworks and Analysis Tools
3	Policy analysis techniques: What makes scientific information effective in policy?	Farrell, Alexander E., and Jill Jager, eds. "Overview: Understanding Design Choices." Chapter 1 in Assessments of Regional and Global Environmental Risks: Designing Processes for the Effective Use of Science in Decisionmaking. Washington, DC: RFF Press, 2005. ISBN: 9781933115047.
4	Quantitative techniques: Box models and lifetimes	Jacob, Daniel J. "Simple Models." Chapter 3 in Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999. ISBN: 9780691001852.
5	Model frameworks: Risk assessment	Stern, Paul C., and Harvey V. Finberg, eds. Chapter 1 in Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1996. ISBN: 9780309053969. Slovic, Paul. "Going Beyond the Red Book: The Sociopolitics of Risk." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9, no. 5 (2003): 1181-1190. Read Summary and Skim Relevant Chapters: Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches. In Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment. Used by the U.S. EPA, National Research Council. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2009.
6	Quantitative techniques: Optimization
7	Model frameworks: Scenarios	O'Neill, Brian C., and Nebojsa Nakicenovic. "Learning from Global Emissions Scenarios." Environmental Research Letters 3, no. 4 (2008). Morgan, M. Granger, and David W. Keith. "Improving the Way We Think About Projecting Future Energy Use and Emissions of Carbon Dioxide." Climatic Change 90, no. 3 (2008): 189‐215. Garb, Yaakov, Simone Pulver, and Stacy D. VanDeveer. "Scenarios in Society, Society in Scenarios: Toward a Social Scientific Analysis of Storyline‐Driven Environmental Modeling." Environmental Research Letters 3, no. 4 (2008): 045015.
8	Field trip: Museum of Science
Case Studies of Models in Policy
9	Acid rain: Air pollution science and models	Tuinstra, William, Leen Hordijk, and Markus Amann. "Using Computer Models in International Negotiations: The Case of Acidification in Europe." Environment 41, no. 9 (1999): 33‐42. Hordijk, Leen. "Use of the RAINS Models in Acid Rain Negotiations in Europe." Environmental Science and Technology 25, no. 4 (1991): 596‐603.
10	Acid rain: Policy outcomes	Tuinstra, William, Leen Hordijk, and Carolien Kroeze. "Moving Boundaries in Transboundary Air Pollution Coproduction of Science and Policy under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution." Global Environmental Change 16, no. 4 (2006): 349‐363.
11	Population and environmental impacts	De Sherbinin, Alex, David Carr, Susan Cassels, and Leiwen Jiang. "Population and Environment." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32 (2007): 345‐373. Chertow, Marian R. "The IPAT Equation and its Variants: Changing Views of Technology and Environmental Impact." Journal of Industrial Ecology 4, no. 4 (2001): 13‐29. Waggoner, P. E., and J. H. Ausubel. "A Framework for Sustainability Science: A Renovated IPAT Identity." Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 99, no. 12 (2002): 7860‐7865.
12	Fisheries management	Layzer, Judith. "Crisis in the New England Fisheries." Chapter 10 in The Environmental Case: Translating Values into Policy. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2006. ISBN: 9781568028989. Hardin, Garrett. "The Tragedy of the Commons." Science 162, no. 3859 (1968): 1243‐1248. Ostrom, Elinor, Joanna Burger, Christopher B. Field, Richard B. Norgaard, and David Policansky. "Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges." Science 284, no. 5412 (1999): 278‐282.
13	Models and policy war stories 1
14	Vulnerability and the Arctic	Turner II, B. L., Roger E. Kasperson, Pamela A. Matson, et al. "A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science." Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 100, no. 14 (2003): 8074‐8079. McCarthy, James J., and Marybeth Long Martello. "Climate Change in the Context of Multiple Stressors and Resilience." Chapter 17 in Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005. (PDF - 1.5MB)
15	Chemicals: Screening and assessment models	Rodan, Bruce D., David W. Pennington, Noelle Eckley, and Robert S. Boethling. "Screening for Persistent Organic Pollutants: Techniques to Provide a Scientific Basis for POPs Criteria in International Negotiations." Environmental Science and Technology 33, no. 20 (1999): 3482‐3488. Klasmeier, Jorg, Michael Matthies, Matthew Macleod, Kathrin Fenner, Martin Scheringer, Maximilian Stroebe, Anne Christine Le Gall, Thomas Mckone, Dik Van De Meent, and Frank Wania. "Application of Multimedia Models for Screening Assessment of Long‐Range Transport Potential and Overall Persistence." Environmental Science and Technology 40, no. 1 (2006): 53‐60.
16	Chemicals: Policy implementation and the Stockholm convention	Kohler, Pia M. "Science, PIC and POPs: Negotiating the Membership of Chemical Review Committees under the Stockholm and Rotterdam Conventions." Review of European Community & International Environmental Law 15, no. 3 (2006): 293‐303. Selin, Henrik and Noelle Eckley. "Science, Politics and Persistent Organic Pollutants: The Role of Scientific Assessments in International Environmental Cooperation." International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 3, no. 1 (2003): 17‐42.
17	Models and policy war stories 2
18	Climate change: Scientific models	Edwards, Paul N. "Representing the Global Atmosphere: Computer Models, Data and Knowledge about Climate Change." In Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance. Edited by Clark A. Miller and Paul N. Edwards. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780262133876. Donnor, Leo J., and William G. Large. "Climate Modeling." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 33 (2008): 1‐17. McElroy, Michael B. "The Carbon Cycle." Chapter 11 in The Atmospheric Environment: Effects of Human Activity. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002. ISBN: 9780691006918.
19	Models and policy war stories 3
20	Climate change: Modeling applications
21	Climate change: Policy applications	Lahsen, Myanna. "Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models." Social Studies of Science 35, no. 6 (2005): 895‐922. Liverman, Diana. "From Uncertain to Unequivocal: The IPCC Working Group I Report: Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis." Environment 49, no. 8 (2007): 28‐32.
Model Evaluation and Policy Planning
22	Earth system models	Biermann, Frank. "'Earth System Governance' as a Crosscutting Theme of Global Change Research." Global Environmental Change 17 (2007): 326‐337. Sokolov, Andrei P., Peter H. Stone, Chris Eliot Forest, et al. "Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty‐First‐Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters." Journal of Climate 22, no. 19 (2009): 5175‐5204.
23	Models and policy war stories 4
24	Term project presentations
25	Term project presentations (cont.)
26	Wrap-up and ways forward: Models for sustainability?	Jasanoff, Sheila. "Heaven and Earth: The Politics of Environmental Images." In Earthly Politics: Local and Global in Environmental Governance. Edited by Sheila Jasanoff and Marybeth L. Martello. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780262600590. Claussen, Martin, Michel Crucifix, Thierry Fichefet, et al. "Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Models." Climate Dynamics 18, no. 7 (2002): 579‐586.