Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

Now showing items 1-20 of 337

    • 21st Century Changes in U.S. Heavy Precipitation Frequency Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns 

      Gao, X.; Schlosser, C.A.; O'Gorman, P.; Monier, E.; Entekhabi, D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016-10)
      Gridded precipitation-gauge observations and global atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting the occurrence of heavy precipitation events based on the prevailing large-scale atmospheric ...

    • Absolute vs. Intensity Limits for CO2 Emission Control: Performance Under Uncertainty 

      Sue Wing, Ian.; Ellerman, A. Denny.; Song, Jaemin. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006-01)
      We elucidate the differences between absolute and intensity-based limits of CO2 emission when there is uncertainty about the future. We demonstrate that the two limits are identical under certainty, and rigorously establish ...

    • Absolute vs. intensity-based emission caps 

      Ellerman, A. Denny.; Sue Wing, Ian. (2003-07)
      Cap-and-trade systems limit emissions to some pre-specified absolute quantity. Intensity-based limits, that restrict emissions to some pre-specified rate relative to input or output, are much more widely used in environmental ...

    • Adjusting to policy expectations in climate change modeling : an interdiciplinary study of flux adjustments in coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models 

      Shackley, Simon.; Risbey, James; Stone, Peter H.; Wynne, Brian (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1999-05)
      This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of ...

    • Advanced Technologies in Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Assessment 

      Morris, J.F.; Reilly, J.M.; Chen, Y.-H.H. (M, 2014-12)
      Considerations regarding the roles of advanced technologies are crucial in energy-economic modeling, as these technologies, while usually not yet commercially viable, could substitute for fossil energy when relevant policies ...

    • Air Pollution Health Effects: Toward an Integrated Assessment 

      Yang, Trent.; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004-07)
      Scientists and policy makers have become increasingly aware of the need to jointly study climate change and air pollution because of the interactions among policy measures and in the atmospheric chemistry that creates the ...

    • The Allocation of European Union Allowances: Lessons, Unifying Themes and General Principles 

      Buchner, Barbara.; Carraro, Carlo.; Ellerman, A. Denny. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006-10)
      A critical issue in dealing with climate change is deciding who has a right to emit carbon dioxide (CO2), and under what conditions, when those emissions are limited. The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) ...

    • An Analogue Approach to Identify Extreme Precipitation Events: Evaluation and Application to CMIP5 Climate Models in the United States 

      Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, C. Adam; Xie, Pingping; Monier, Erwan; Entekhabi, Dara (MIT Joint Program, 2013-11)
      Global warming is expected to alter the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme precipitation events. However, global climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency and intensity distribution of ...

    • Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty 

      Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Kicklighter, David W.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-09)
      Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a ...

    • Analysis of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel in Korea : 1961-1994 

      Choi, Ki-Hong. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-11)

    • Analysis of post-Kyoto CO₂ emissions trading using marginal abatement curves 

      Ellerman, A. Denny.; Decaux, Annelène. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1998-10)
      Marginal abatement curves (MACs) are often used heuristically to demonstrate the advantages of emissions trading. In this paper, the authors derive MACs from EPPA, the MIT Joint Program's computable general equilibrium ...

    • Analysis of Strategies of Companies under Carbon Constraint: Relationship between Profit Structure of Companies and Carbon/Fuel Price Uncertainty 

      Hashimoto, Susumu (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004-01)
      This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political ...

    • Analysis of the Coal Sector under Carbon Constraints 

      McFarland, James R.; Paltsev, Sergey.; Jacoby, Henry D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-04)
      Application of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to assessment of the future of coal under climate policy revealed the need for an improved representation of load dispatch in the representation ...

    • An Analysis of the European Emission Trading Scheme 

      Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-10)
      An international emissions trading system is a featured instrument in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases among major industrial countries. The ...

    • Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals 

      Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Paltsev, Sergey.; Reilly, John M.; Jacoby, Henry D.; Holak, Jennifer (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-04)
      The U.S. Congress is considering a set of bills designed to limit the nation’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these proposals call for a cap-and-trade system; others propose an emissions tax. This paper ...

    • Analysis of U.S. Water Resources under Climate Change 

      Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K.; Schlosser, C.A.; Jacoby, H.D.; Gueneau, A.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013-02)
      The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, extended to include a Water Resource System (WRS) component, is applied to an integrated assessment of effects of alternative climate policy scenarios on U.S. water ...

    • Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China 

      Zhang, D.; Karplus, V.; Rausch, S.; Zhang, X. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013-01)
      Decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial to China’s sustainable development. In addition to energy and carbon intensity targets enacted under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), a coal or fossil ...

    • Annex I differentiation proposals : implications for welfare, equity and policy 

      Reiner, David M.; Jacoby, Henry D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-10)
      Drawing upon a variety of different criteria, many nations have introduced proposals to differentiate the reductions in carbon emissions that would be required of industrialized nations in the short to medium term. This ...

    • Application of the Analogue Method to Modeling Heat Waves: A Case Study With Power Transformers 

      Gao, X.; Schlosser, C.A.; Morgan, E. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2017-08)
      Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet increasingly vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and thereby increase ...

    • Application of the probabilistic collocation method for an uncertainty analysis of a simple ocean model 

      Webster, Mort David.; Tatang, Menner A.; McRae, Gregory J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-01)
      This paper presents the probabilistic collocation method as a computationally efficient method for performing uncertainty analysis on large complex models such as those used in global climate change research. The collocation ...