A Crude Threat :The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign against Saudi Arabian Oil
Name
Itzkowitz-2011-A Crude Threat The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign.pdf
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239.04 KB
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Adobe PDF
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Author(s)
Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Joshua
Priebe, Miranda L.
Date Issued
July 2011
Journal
International Security
Publisher
MIT Press
Citation
Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Joshua R. and Miranda Priebe. “A Crude Threat: The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign against Saudi Arabian Oil.” International Security 36 (2011): 167-201.© 2011 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The United States and its Persian Gulf allies have been increasingly concerned with the growing size and complexity of Iran's ballistic missile programs. At a time when the United States and its allies remain locked in a standoff with Iran over the latter's nuclear program, states around the Persian Gulf fear that Iran would retaliate for an attack on its nuclear program by launching missiles at regional oil installations and other strategic targets. An examination of the threat posed by Iran's missiles to Saudi Arabian oil installations, based on an assessment of Iran's missile capabilities, a detailed analysis of Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure, and a simulated missile campaign against the network using known Iranian weapons, finds no evidence of a significant Iranian missile threat to Saudi infrastructure. These findings cast doubt on one aspect of the Iranian threat to Persian Gulf oil while offering an analytic framework for understanding developments in the Iranian missile arsenal and the vulnerability of oil infrastructure to conventional attack.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00048
