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Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage

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Show simple item record Emanuel, Kerry Andrew 2012-12-03T17:58:22Z 2012-12-03T17:58:22Z 2011-10
dc.identifier.issn 1948-8327
dc.identifier.issn 1948-8335
dc.description.abstract While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage, which depend largely on rare, high-intensity landfalling events and are thus highly volatile compared to basin-wide storm metrics. Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large-scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models, 1000 artificial 100-yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b. These synthetic hurricanes damage a portfolio of insured property according to an aggregate wind-damage function; damage from flooding is not considered here. Assuming that the hurricane climate changes linearly with time, a 1000-member ensemble of time series of property damage was created. Three of the four climate models used produce increasing damage with time, with the global warming signal emerging on time scales of 40, 113, and 170 yr, respectively. It is pointed out, however, that probabilities of damage increase significantly well before such emergence time scales and it is shown that probability density distributions of aggregate damage become appreciably separated from those of the control climate on time scales as short as 25 yr. For the fourth climate model, damages decrease with time, but the signal is weak. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA090AR4310131) en_US
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher American Meteorological Society en_US
dc.relation.isversionof 10.1175/wcas-d-11-00007.1 en_US
dc.rights Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. en_US
dc.source AMS en_US
dc.title Global Warming Effects on Us Hurricane Damage en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.identifier.citation Emanuel, Kerry. “Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage.” Weather, Climate, and Society 3.4 (2011): 261–268. © 2011 American Meteorological Society en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthor Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journal Weather Climate and Society en_US
dc.identifier.mitlicense PUBLISHER_POLICY en_US
dc.eprint.version Final published version en_US
dc.type.uri en_US
eprint.status en_US
dspace.orderedauthors Emanuel, Kerry en

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