Vulnerability models for environmental risk assessment. Application to a nuclear power plant containment building
Author(s)Crusells-Girona, M.; Egozcue, J. J.; Musolas Otano, Antoni Maria
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Environmental risk management consists of making decisions on human activities or construction designs that are affected by the environment and/or have consequences or impacts on it. In these cases, decisions are made such that risk is minimized. In this regard, the forthcoming paper develops a close form that relates risk with cost, hazard, and vulnerability; and then focuses on vulnerability. The vulnerability of a system under an external action can be described by the conditional probability of the degrees of damage after an event. This vulnerability model can be obtained by a simplicial regression of those outputs, as a response variable, on explanatory variables. After a theoretical explanation, the authors present the case study of a nuclear power plant containment building. Once a given overpressure is registered inside the containment building, three possible outputs are to be considered: serviceability, breakdown, and collapse. The study consists of three steps: (a) modelling the containment building using the finite element method; (b) given an overpressure, simulating uncertain parameters related to material constitutive equations in order to obtain the corresponding proportions; (c) performing a simplicial regression to obtain a meaningful vulnerability model. The simulation provides normalized-to-unity outputs under the overpressure conditions. The obtained vulnerability model is in definite correspondence with previous results in nuclear power plant safety analysis reports.
DepartmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Musolas, A., J. J. Egozcue, and M. Crusells-Girona. "Vulnerability models for environmental risk assessment. Application to a nuclear power plant containment building." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, November 2015, pp. 1-15.
Author's final manuscript