MIT Libraries logoDSpace@MIT

MIT
View Item 
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • View Item
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • MIT Open Access Articles
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade

Author(s)
Saracco, Fabio; Gabrielli, Andrea; Squartini, Tiziano; Di Clemente, Riccardo
Thumbnail
DownloadDetecting early signs.pdf (1.661Mb)
PUBLISHER_CC

Publisher with Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution

Terms of use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008–2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995–2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles.
Date issued
2016-07
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/106190
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Journal
Scientific Reports
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Citation
Saracco, Fabio et al. “Detecting Early Signs of the 2007–2008 Crisis in the World Trade.” Scientific Reports 6 (2016): 30286.
Version: Final published version
ISSN
2045-2322

Collections
  • MIT Open Access Articles

Browse

All of DSpaceCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

Login

Statistics

OA StatisticsStatistics by CountryStatistics by Department
MIT Libraries
PrivacyPermissionsAccessibilityContact us
MIT
Content created by the MIT Libraries, CC BY-NC unless otherwise noted. Notify us about copyright concerns.