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dc.contributor.authorDai, Lei
dc.contributor.authorKorolev, Kirill S.
dc.contributor.authorGore, Jeff
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-21T15:38:27Z
dc.date.available2017-04-21T15:38:27Z
dc.date.issued2015-07
dc.date.submitted2014-09
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.issn1091-6490
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/108341
dc.description.abstractShifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States. National Institutes of Health (NIH DP2)en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences (U.S.)en_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1418415112en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourcePNASen_US
dc.titleRelation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental driversen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationDai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S. and Gore, Jeff. “Relation Between Stability and Resilience Determines the Performance of Early Warning Signals Under Different Environmental Drivers.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 32 (July 27, 2015): 10056–10061. © 2015 National Academy of Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Biologyen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistryen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Physicsen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorDai, Lei
dc.contributor.mitauthorGore, Jeff
dc.relation.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsDai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeffen_US
dspace.embargo.termsNen_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4583-8555
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US


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