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dc.contributor.authorKossin, James P.
dc.contributor.authorCamargo, Suzana J.
dc.contributor.authorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-25T16:05:41Z
dc.date.available2017-04-25T16:05:41Z
dc.date.issued2016-07
dc.date.submitted2016-01
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/108396
dc.description.abstractThe average latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their peak intensity has been observed to be shifting poleward in some regions over the past 30 years, apparently in concert with the independently observed expansion of the tropical belt. This poleward migration is particularly well observed and robust in the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). Such a migration is expected to cause systematic changes, both increases and decreases, in regional hazard exposure and risk, particularly if it persists through the present century. Here, it is shown that the past poleward migration in the WNP has coincided with decreased TC exposure in the region of the Philippine and South China Seas, including the Marianas, the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China, and increased exposure in the region of the East China Sea, including Japan and its Ryukyu Islands, the Korea Peninsula, and parts of eastern China. Additionally, it is shown that projections of WNP TCs simulated by, and downscaled from, an ensemble of numerical models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) demonstrate a continuing poleward migration into the present century following the emissions projections of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The projected migration causes a shift in regional TC exposure that is very similar in pattern and relative amplitude to the past observed shift. In terms of regional differences in vulnerability and resilience based on past TC exposure, the potential ramifications of these future changes are significant. Questions of attribution for the changes are discussed in terms of tropical belt expansion and Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grants 1461517)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N000140910526)en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1en_US
dc.rightsArticle is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.en_US
dc.sourceAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.titlePast and Projected Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Exposureen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.citationKossin, James P., Kerry A. Emanuel, and Suzana J. Camargo. “Past and Projected Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Exposure.” Journal of Climate 29.16 (2016): 5725–5739. © 2016 American Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.mitauthorEmanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journalJournal of Climateen_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticleen_US
eprint.statushttp://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerRevieweden_US
dspace.orderedauthorsKossin, James P.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Camargo, Suzana J.en_US
dspace.embargo.termsNen_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082
mit.licensePUBLISHER_POLICYen_US


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